2026: A Year of Resilience for Brands
24/2/2026
Analysis and Strategic Perspective – Jean-Xavier Wilhelmy, Director of Strategy at Tam-Tam\TBWA
One year after the beginning of the Canada–U.S. trade war, it is clear that uncertainty still prevails. As negotiations surrounding the North American Free Trade Agreement loom, many issues remain unresolved, with resistance from the House of Representatives regarding tariffs and ongoing tariff (and even military) threats. The fog is not lifting—nor is it likely to over the next three years. In this context, resilience becomes an essential stance.
Canada vs. U.S.: An Endless Arm Wrestle
The Trump administration and the Carney government seem locked in perpetual negotiations; tariffs and economic decisions shift like a weathervane. What will not change is the tense and troubling climate created by this conflict—and the fact that the situation can change completely with a single sneeze from the President. Uncertainty has now become the norm.
Undeniable Impacts
Despite all this unpredictability, the commercial and social impacts of the tariff war have been felt across multiple industries, and the numbers1 speak for themselves:
• A 10.3% decline in Canadian exports to the U.S.
• A 14% increase in exports to countries other than the U.S.
• Nearly a 30% decrease in Canadian tourism to the U.S. (land travel)2
• Significant negative repercussions in the metals (aluminum), automotive, industrial machinery, forestry, and certain consumer goods sectors
• A noticeable impact on mental health linked to tariff-related3 uncertainty
These figures demonstrate the concrete consequences that the economic and geopolitical situation has created in just one year—and point to a clear trend that will continue in the coming years.
MarketDiversification as a Growth Lever
One of the few clear conclusions from the past year of uncertainty is the importance of diversifying markets and exports. Whether Quebec brands are looking to expand into Canadian,European, African, or Asian markets—or foreign brands are seeking to establish themselves in Quebec and/or Canada—now is the time to reflect seriously on these opportunities.
As Prime Minister Carney mentioned, the United States have disrupted the global economic order over the past year. Many countries are now burdened with restrictive tariffs and are questioning their dependence on the American economy. In doing so, they are seeking new outlets and more predictable international relationships. Canada remains a key market in North America, and brands that understand it properly will gain a significant long-term advantage.
Resilience as a Strategic Posture
Most of the major issues affecting us—economic, technological, and military conflicts, climate change, and the dominance of artificial intelligence—are beyond our control. In this context, resilience becomes a strategy and includes approaches that emphasize:
- Continuity and familiarity – Creating a sense of stability in an unstable world; reminding audiences of core values and why they can be trusted;
- Modesty and consistency – Favoring calm over spectacle; remaining steady and present in consumers’ lives; in short, becoming a pillar;
- Community and local connection – Building solidarity; connecting with neighborhood life and the circular economy; demonstrating local contribution (especially for foreign brands);
- Risk management – Offering guarantees, better pricing, and promotions that are sensitive to the broader context and consumers’ everyday realities;
- Contributing to the social conversation – Breaking the silence; taking a stand and actively participating in public discourse to demonstrate contextual awareness and purpose.
Finally,Some Control Over Our Destiny
While we may feel powerless in the face of international forces, 2026 will be a provincial election yearthat will push much of Quebec to define its direction for the coming years. On the agenda: nationalism versus federalism, protectionism versus economicopenness, cultural protection versus economic growth. This represents one of the few aspects where Quebec can express itself and have a tangible impact onits reality. Elections will become a major topic in public discourse and popular culture this year.
How CanBrands Manage the Chaos?
There is no exact recipe—only many ingredients to consider. Each brand must define its own formula for success, and it will likely differ from that of its neighbors.
ForCanadian and Quebec brands:
- Strengthen their local roots (most brands highlighted their local identity this year);
- Assert their value against American competition (as Boréal did at the beginning of the crisis);
- Diversify markets and revenue streams (Porc du Québec is a strong example);
- Move closer to local content and media ecosystems (as Maxi did with the show Nuls en Chef);
- Build stronger ties to popular culture (such as Nissan with its LEAF launch during Le Bye Bye).
ForAmerican brands (or Canadian brands that do not truly communicate in Quebec):
- Legitimize their presence in Canada/Quebec (as Kraft-Heinz has done repeatedly);
- Adopt an inclusive and open stance (as McDonald’s does by adapting its menu to the market year after year);
- Avoid imposing themselves too aggressively (Décathlon with its accessible, unpretentious approach to sports);
- Connect more deeply with local culture (through original productions by brands like Amazon Prime).
For brands wishing to align more closely with Quebec’s political context:
- Mobilize—even polarize—by clearly inviting action and owning their convictions;
- Take concrete, memorable, and sometimes bold actions;
- Capture attention and turn business decisions into meaningful symbols;
- In short, take a clear position on political and cultural issues.
In an unstable world, resilience is no longer a choice but a strategic posture. Brands thatsuccessfully navigate 2026 will remain grounded, clear-eyed, and consistent. They will move through uncertainty without losing sight of their role andpurpose—and will seize the opportunities created by the economic and political context.
1. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250904/t001a-eng.htm
2. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/251112/dq251112b-fra.htm
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